February 19, 2013

Google Just Crossed $802.50 per Share - Breaking $800 for the First Time Ever, But...Why?


Last week we wrote an article that digs into the key reasons why Apple’s shares rose to $705 and then subsequently plummeted (that is a technical financial term) to the neighborhood of $460. In that article, we placed the reason for the drop (note, we don’t say the “blame”) squarely on the shoulders of the major hedge funds, who set the direction and the pace for both the rise and the drop. Or rather the large hedge funds create the “momentum” behind which the stock will go – and the rest then follow, accentuating the rise or fall, as the case may be at any moment in time.

And just under a month ago we wrote an analysis of Google based on its latest earnings call and financial details for its fiscal Q4 2012 quarter. As we noted in that article, there is clearly optimism within Google and Larry Page gave a very good accounting of the company’s progress on a number of fronts. Unlike the two previous quarters, when Google suffered through several misfires, the latest quarter was filled with relatively good news. But here is the rub – as good as the news was, there wasn’t anything in it that was so stellar, so amazing, and so fantastic that the stock should now be breaking new records on share price - $802.50 as we write right now.

Yes, Google continues to own search – no matter what the competition (read that to mean Microsoft) does, it continues to maintain its edge. And of course we all know that Google got off with a rather incredulous slap on the wrist in its battle with the federal government – an expensive effort on the side of the government that amounted to absolutely nothing.

And yes, less than two weeks ago Google signed an agreement with Yahoo to sell ads on Yahoo’s websites and across Yahoo’s mobile services. It is also true that YouTube dominates its market, even if it provides no meaningful revenue. And of course there is Android and all of the attendant hype being generated for it through Samsung Mobile. And we will admit that Google Play is slowly but inevitably ramping up. Let’s also not forget Google Fiber in Kansas – it is also generating noise of the good sort, even if today it is limited in geographic scope.

And yes, it is also true that there is something to be said for the high profile publicity generated by as yet nothing more than experimental entities Google Glass and Google’s self-driving car. Both of which may prove huge as products or ultimately nothing more than huge hype.

And…and…we still don’t see the kind of real, hard core reason that investors should believe Google is about to deliver any really amazing revenue-generating (of the through-the-roof variety) product in hand. So what does it come down to?

As always, it comes down to artificially generated momentum of the major hedge funds and large scale institutional investor sort. The little guy and gal will get in of course just as the big boys begin to sell it back. Check the options contracts and beware of short sellers.

Historically these shifts in momentum shift and occur on a regular basis. Apple shares head down, Google shares head up. Google goes flat, Apple appears transcendent. There is currently – for truly no apparent reason other than a momentum shift – a great deal of positive hype and enthusiasm about Google right now. Hence the share price today. We’ve seen it happen often. Soon enough Google will not deliver on the hype (even if it delivers stellar results) and the stock will once head back down.




Edited by Brooke Neuman



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Google    Microsoft    Apple
       

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