Every year for over a decade now Deloitte has delivered its Technology, Media and Telecommunications (TMT) Predictions report. TMT 2014 was just released today and Deloitte has provided a number of compelling insights, ranging from wearable technology to tablets to rugged mobile devices and everything in between.
Deloitte provides estimates of units likely to ship as well as very useful average selling price numbers for a variety of devices and technologies. That said, let's just dive right in.
Prediction No. 1 - Wearable Technology
Smart glasses, fitness bands and watches will likely sell about 10 million units in 2014, and will generate an estimated $3 billion in revenue. Of these smart glasses should generate the most revenue, from sales of as many as four million units at an average selling price (ASP) of $500. Smart fitness bands should sell four million units at an ASP of $140, and smartwatches should sell about two million units at an ASP of $200.
Prediction No. 2 - The Converged Living Room
Global sales of smartphones, tablets, PCs, TV sets and videogame consoles will exceed $750 billion in 2014, up $50 billion from 2013 and almost double the 2010 total. However, a plateau now appears likely, with sales expected to continue growing but at a slower rate than over the past 10 years, with an estimated ceiling of about $800 billion per year. The chart below provides a graphical view.
(Click on above graph to enlarge)
Prediction No. 3 - Massive Online Courses
Though not strictly a "tech" prediction, obviously tech is at the bottom of massive online course. Student registrations in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) will double in 2014 compared to 2012 to over 10 million courses, but low completion rates - which remain a major issue, means that less than 0.2 percent of all courses completed in 2014 will be MOOCs. The growing awareness of online education will force educational institutions to increase investment in this area and drive more acceptance of online education as it becomes accredited. Especially look for increased adoption by corporate training groups.
Prediction No. 4 - eVisits, or the 21st Century House Call
There will be 100 million eVisits globally, potentially saving over $5 billion when compared to the cost of in-person doctor visits. This represents real growth of 400 percent from 2012 levels.
Prediction No. 5 - Television Measurement
Measurement of the viewing of domestic television programs is increasingly reflecting the growth of online viewing. This is due to the introduction of hybrid measurement, which enables the inclusion of viewing taking place on PCs, tablets and smartphones into overall viewing numbers, and also includes other data sets, such as set-top box channel selections and video-on-demand server logs.
Prediction No. 6 - Phablets are not a Phad but They May be Peaking
Shipments of phablets (personally we truly hate the term, but Deloitte uses it so…), smartphones with 5.0 to 6.9 inch screens, will represent 25 percent of smartphones sold, or 300 million units. That is double the 2013 volume, and 10 times 2012 sales. But after initial rapid consumer success, 2014 may very well prove to mark a peak phablet year, as only a minority, albeit a sizable minority, of smartphone users will want to handle such a large device.
Prediction No. 7 - The Smartphone Generation Gap
Those over 55 years of age will be the age group experiencing the fastest year-on-year rises in smartphone penetration across developed markets. Ownership should rise between 45 to 50 percent by year-end, lower than the approximately 70 percent penetration rates for 18 to 54 year olds, but a 25 percent increase from 2013. This certainly suggests that we may also see shifts in overall marketing approaches for smartphones.
Prediction No. 8 Rugged Devices Finally Begin to Get Less Expensive
Reinventing the business case for the mobile field force has finally arrives. Rugged devices, which are nothing more than well-protected mobile computers that tend to run old operating systems, have long been expensive. That is about to change. The entry price for a ruggedized, connected data device that can be used by some field force workers, as well as to undertake tasks such as car rental check-in inspections, inspecting highways, delivering packages or for use in other more or less harsh environments will fall to $250.
The full Technology, Media and Telecommunications Predictions 2014 report, which includes numerous useful charts and much more detail than our summary here, is available as a free download directly from Deloitte's website. It is well worth reading in its entirety. In particular we believe it is certainly well worth diving deeper into the eVisit/medical section of the report, as well as the wearable tech section.
TechZone360 Senior Editor
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